Looking at the Jags, Carolina, and Dallas.
Jags -2.5
I was down on the jags last week - yet I do respect them defensively despite their inability to stop indy. Their offense was putrid but they showed that they do have some offensive capability - even if it was against the worst defense in the NFL. Leftwich put up 300+ yards in the air, and coming into SD they will be facing a team that gives up a pretty tight average of about 24 points. In SD's only "real" win (if you can call it that) Tomlinson was the factor that held Houston off for the 7 pt SD win. The Jags won't be letting Tomlinson run all over them and unlike the colts, and SD has nothing to brag about in the passing department.
Carolina +5.5
I'm not sure why this line is so high because the way I see it these teams are pretty even. Denver has beaten SD TB and KC, and lost by a point to Jacksonville. Carolina beat KC but lost to GB and Atlanta. Both teams have good pass defenses and realtively similar offenses - HOWEVER injuries are making me hold off this one for now (Davis, Smith, He Hate Me) - I'd like to follow the progress of Steven Davis coming back - the Davis/Foster combo might be an effective one.
Dallas -3.5
I'd like to buy this down to 3 just for kicks - but its not a big deal beacuase with a week to prepare for his old team parcells and co will be hosting the giants who are probably a tad high on themselves after a few wins. The Giants beat the skins at NY (by 6) and Dallas beat gibbs at Washington (by 3) - granted with some potentially influential calls. However it still launders out in the wash since this game is in Dallas the -3.5 looks pretty accurate to me. Looking at their seasons thus far its amazing to see how similar these teams are in their box scores. They average 15 and 15.5 opponent PPG, and they score an average of 19.5 and 19 PPG on offense. They both started out their seasons with a loss (to a superior team in minny/philly) and then faced cleveland and washington winning both of those games. Add the GB game to the giants (confidence boost) - where they did stop the GB offense for almost 3 quarters of favre - and the bye week for dallas (veteran prep time) then the landscape looks pretty even overall. Game in Dallas I'll take the Boys at -3 most likely.
Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)
Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16
Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120
Week 4 Result: 2-2 -1.50
W--Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
W--St. Louis Rams -3 (-135)
L--Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
L--Baltimore Ravens ML (-240)
YTD 9-6 +1.36
Jags -2.5
I was down on the jags last week - yet I do respect them defensively despite their inability to stop indy. Their offense was putrid but they showed that they do have some offensive capability - even if it was against the worst defense in the NFL. Leftwich put up 300+ yards in the air, and coming into SD they will be facing a team that gives up a pretty tight average of about 24 points. In SD's only "real" win (if you can call it that) Tomlinson was the factor that held Houston off for the 7 pt SD win. The Jags won't be letting Tomlinson run all over them and unlike the colts, and SD has nothing to brag about in the passing department.
Carolina +5.5
I'm not sure why this line is so high because the way I see it these teams are pretty even. Denver has beaten SD TB and KC, and lost by a point to Jacksonville. Carolina beat KC but lost to GB and Atlanta. Both teams have good pass defenses and realtively similar offenses - HOWEVER injuries are making me hold off this one for now (Davis, Smith, He Hate Me) - I'd like to follow the progress of Steven Davis coming back - the Davis/Foster combo might be an effective one.
Dallas -3.5
I'd like to buy this down to 3 just for kicks - but its not a big deal beacuase with a week to prepare for his old team parcells and co will be hosting the giants who are probably a tad high on themselves after a few wins. The Giants beat the skins at NY (by 6) and Dallas beat gibbs at Washington (by 3) - granted with some potentially influential calls. However it still launders out in the wash since this game is in Dallas the -3.5 looks pretty accurate to me. Looking at their seasons thus far its amazing to see how similar these teams are in their box scores. They average 15 and 15.5 opponent PPG, and they score an average of 19.5 and 19 PPG on offense. They both started out their seasons with a loss (to a superior team in minny/philly) and then faced cleveland and washington winning both of those games. Add the GB game to the giants (confidence boost) - where they did stop the GB offense for almost 3 quarters of favre - and the bye week for dallas (veteran prep time) then the landscape looks pretty even overall. Game in Dallas I'll take the Boys at -3 most likely.
Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)
Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16
Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120
Week 4 Result: 2-2 -1.50
W--Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
W--St. Louis Rams -3 (-135)
L--Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
L--Baltimore Ravens ML (-240)
YTD 9-6 +1.36
